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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Detroit Lions 9

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.09 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model