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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 31 – Detroit Lions 15

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.88 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 31, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model