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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 48

Detroit Lions 31 – Seattle Seahawks 41

What Actually Happened

(7:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 85-T.Kennedy to SEA 31 for 17 yards (8-C.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.29 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model