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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 14 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.52 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model