Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 39

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-M.Haack punts 19 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.43 EP
75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.87 EP

KICK -0.23 EP

50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
50% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model