Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 24 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to IND 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines to IND 24 for 14 yards (25-H.Haskins). PENALTY on TEN-46-M.Cox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.52 EP
74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model