4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 6-M.Haack punts 48 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 31, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model