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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 5-J.Camarda punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.81 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 23, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model