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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 19 at the 34

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(:24) 7-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.16 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model