Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

(10:42) 13-B.Pinion punts 62 yards to TB 2, Center-48-L.McCullough. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 26 for 24 yards (32-J.Hawkins).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.97 EP
52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model