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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 5-J.Camarda punts 38 yards to ATL 31, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 27, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model