Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 72

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Atlanta Falcons 7

(9:56) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to ATL 30, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model