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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 7-L.Fournette left guard to ATL 15 for no gain (92-A.Ogundeji, 32-J.Hawkins).

The Three Options

GO +3.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.24 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model