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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 9 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to LA 17, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.37 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP