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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 16 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 5-B.Anger punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.88 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model