4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 22

Dallas Cowboys 16 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 19-B.Maher 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.86 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model