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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 54

Dallas Cowboys 19 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to LA 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.70 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 54, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model