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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 15

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 19-B.Maher 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.23 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 15, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model