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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 10

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 8-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 10, worth +0.71 EP
KICK +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT +0.65 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model