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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 72

New York Jets 12 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to MIA 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 17-J.Waddle.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.02 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 30, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model