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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 56

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 7-B.Mann punts 48 yards to MIA 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-21-A.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.15 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP