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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 28

Miami Dolphins 14 – New York Jets 19

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.51 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model