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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 74

New York Jets 19 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(:32) 7-B.Mann punts 51 yards to MIA 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 10-T.Hill to MIA 21 for -2 yards (26-B.Echols; 34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.66 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 74, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model