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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 46

New York Jets 2 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to MIA 3, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-26-B.Echols.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.19 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model