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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 64

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 2

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 4-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to NYJ 28, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.46 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model