4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 16

New York Jets 2 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 6-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.24 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 16, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model