Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(9:31) 14-A.Lee punts 55 yards to PHI 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-B.Covey to PHI 24 for 7 yards (33-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.08 EP
60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model