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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 24-D.Williams. 24-D.Williams right end to ARI 35 for 7 yards (21-A.Chachere, 32-R.Blankenship).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.57 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 30, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model