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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 19 at the 24

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 13-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.70 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model