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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(:32) 8-A.Siposs punts 39 yards to ARI 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-58-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.82 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model