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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 3

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:40) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to ARI 1 for 2 yards (25-Z.Collins; 94-Z.Allen).

The Three Options

GO +4.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.20 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 3, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model