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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 57

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 8-A.Siposs punts 45 yards to ARI 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.90 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 57, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP