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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 52

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 14-A.Lee punts 39 yards to PHI 13, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.31 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 52, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model