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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 20

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(10:44) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass incomplete short left to 18-D.Johnson (7-T.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.98 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 20, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP