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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Buffalo Bills 38

What Actually Happened

(10:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass incomplete short right to 11-C.Claypool.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.50 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EP