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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 14 at the 26

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Buffalo Bills 38

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass incomplete short right [90-S.Lawson]. Thrown away under pressure. Penalty on PIT-8-K.Pickett, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on BUF-57-A.Epenesa, Disqualification, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +1.95 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.75 EP