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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 11

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(5:42) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.09 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model