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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:42) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to CAR 7, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-26-S.Womack.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.22 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model