Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 87

Carolina Panthers 3 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(4:10) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to SF 46, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.43 EP
52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 87, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model