4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 25

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-Y.Gross-Matos), Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky, RECOVERED by CAR-7-S.Thompson at CAR 21. 7-S.Thompson to CAR 22 for 1 yard (74-S.Burford). FUMBLES (74-S.Burford), and recovers at CAR 22.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.33 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model