Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 60

Carolina Panthers 3 – San Francisco 49ers 17

(:11) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to SF 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 3-R.McCloud to SF 15 for 1 yard (42-S.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP

67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.36 EP
33% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -1.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model