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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 10-J.Hekker punts 67 yards to SF 8, Center-44-J.Jansen. 3-R.McCloud to SF 15 for 7 yards (40-B.Smith; 34-S.Chandler).

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.37 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP