4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 30

Carolina Panthers 15 – San Francisco 49ers 37

What Actually Happened

(:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass incomplete deep right to 2-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.03 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.59 EP