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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 23

Carolina Panthers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 4-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.61 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model