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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 16

Baltimore Ravens 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.26 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 16, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model