Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Giants 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 6-J.Gillan punts 60 yards to BAL 10, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 22 for 12 yards (47-C.Brown). PENALTY on BAL-16-T.Wallace, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model