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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 38

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(:31) 9-J.Tucker 56 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.27 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -2.04 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model