4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 46

New York Giants 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 6-J.Gillan punts 35 yards to BAL 11, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.99 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP