4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 46

Buffalo Bills 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(14:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs [99-K.Saunders].

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.01 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model