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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 78

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 5-T.Townsend punts 60 yards to BUF 18, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 24 for 6 yards (43-J.Cochrane).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.20 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 78, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 35, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model